I presented this talk at the MIT Physics Colloquium on September 5th, 2019, which concerns a critical human need, economic growth. It is, in large part, a brief description of some of human history, but not one we learn in history class. In this talk, I identify the cause of economic growth and how this cause created technology revolutions.
Such revolutions fueled extraordinary wealth creation and increased the standard of living by more than 3000 percent over the last 200 years. This same cause also enabled the U.S. to become a world economic and military power after World War II.
Unfortunately, over the last half-century, the role this cause has played in creating opportunities for economic growth has been reduced by 65% as a result of social and political forces, which have directly affected U.S. government funding policies.
This situation raises serious concerns about our ability to create our economic future. If you care about your children’s future, the future of their children, and the future of this great nation, then this talk will provide you with knowledge and a plan as to how we can ensure that prosperity for all can continue for future generations.
MITPhysicColloquium09.05.2019
You confused Polonium and Plutonium.
Also, the Japanese were the first to exploit the transistor for commercial projects, but the US brought the technology back to apply it to computers.
The real problem today is the taking of money from the private sector greatly discourages the research and assumption of risk in that sector. Government spending has recently (since about 2020) assumed risk in the name of the American people simply for the skewing of technology into monopolies. The risk is predictably a bad risk that private enterprise would never assume. Basically, this stifles the research you lament is not happening. This means that Government spending actually retards any progress that would improve the quality of life while actually building in a degradation of the quality of life we pass on to our posterity. There is a negative effect of Government spending being manifest today that is not reflected in your charts.
There is great benefit in turning “worthless” things into useful things. Curious people will continue to push the frontiers of knowledge unless politically constrained by Government spending. The “development” you lament is actually the engine that turns discovery into commercial products. The private enterprise sector is so much better than the Government at this that you need an almost infinite scale to show it.
So, research will continue with or without Government spending. In fact it will be better without the constraints on research that come with Government spending. What we need is the the private sector to turn these discoveries into useful commercial products. With Government subsidizing specific sectors to create monopolies, even the great engine of private enterprise is being dulled substantially to provide guaranteed profit to those who kick back donations and the terrible financial risk this generates is placed on “we the people” instead of on the entrepreneurs developing the idea. If you extended the curve of spending vs. GDP, you would see another giant hump in it like the WWII one, without any benefit to the people.
The next “worthless” commodity to be turned into benefit will be the recycling of spent nuclear fuel into “energy too cheap to meter”. Like Goddard, however, the implementers of this idea will be pilloried enough that the realization will not be until after they are dead.
I think the main point of your talk is that science and innovation will march on despite the overspending and onerous regulation of the American people as long as the Constitution exists. But we will have to overcome a greater headwind to do it because of our current Government’s subversive nature.
Great talk and I appreciate putting the history of science into perspective with economics in a way that reveals what we all have to start to correct.
Thank you for the thoughtful response. Polonium is used as a neutron initiator in a uranium bomb.
The key to exploiting the transistor was integrated circuits by Jack Kilby of TI. The Asians are always looking for a free lunch because they are extremely risk averse.
Our government must do what the private sector cannot and will not do. If the government gets involved in any commercial activities, it transforms competitiveness into politics.
In my experience, the private will not invest in discovery-based science because they cannot own the results since everyone owns it. You cannot patent discoveries of how the natural world works.
Therefore, it is the responsibility of the government to invest in this type of research for future generations. However, the government must not politicize it or interfere with the scientific community’s search for objective truth using the scientific method.
Unfortunately, in recent times, it has interfered and, as a consequence, will likely destroy it as it has other virtues that make us proud to be thoughtful and curious human beings.
Nicely done.
An article of faith is that many of the “rules of the Universe” that govern expansion…are still to be discovered…. and there are probably clues and hints, a-la the periodic table that may be in plain sight. Fortune favours the knowledgeable, curious observer.
On another front, Desperately need GDP and spending data upgraded to end of 2021. I assume we will see some stunning divergence.
Maybe GDP growth over the last few years is a function of free money, not technology. Money is being spent on technology because the consumers & corps have never been more flush. Possibly, technology is not the cause, but the recipient.
Thank you for the thoughtful comment, David. I have written an essay, Prosperity Favors the Bold, which I plan to publish, so I appreciate your point about the curious observer.
Yes, the data needs updating. The GDP annual growth data is bizarre for 2020 and 2021 given the lockdown and the flood of government spending. In 2020 government outlays increased by 50% (a $2T increase) and increased further from that point on annually. My estimate is 25-30% of the GDP growth rate is free money. It’s the most massive wealth transfer and pandering effort in US history. As they say, never let a good crisis go to waste. The government creates the crisis and then voters want the government to fix it. You cannot make this stuff up!
John